As a result, in the second half of 2021, a strong US economic recovery is likely to take place. Economic activity is likely to be about 5% above the first half of the year, according to The Conference Board. The recovery will be especially strong in the hardest-hit industries, where employment levels are still very depressed compared with pre-pandemic levels.
We cannot expect a full employment recovery in early 2022, because automation and corporate reorganizations permanently eliminated many jobs. But barring a major slowdown in the vaccination campaign, I project that 3.5 to 5 million new jobs should be created in the United States by the first quarter of 2022.
Growing demand for and a stagnant supply of workers will lead to a tight labor market within two to three years, and in some blue-collar occupations, maybe even sooner.
So as dark as these days are, hold on — a much better labor market is around the corner.